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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — 2026-09-20

1:40 PM ETTropicana FieldSP: Patrick Sandoval vs Griffin JaxMLBFINAL
Recap

Tampa Bay Rays won 5-1 over Boston Red Sox on 2026-09-20. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 4 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Boston Red Sox
39%
Tampa Bay Rays
61%
Projected
Sox 4.4 - 4.5 Rays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.
Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 39% / Tampa Bay Rays 61%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.4 — 4.5 Tampa Bay Rays.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Tampa Bay Rays ML at -142 at -142. Pre-game: model 62.7% vs market 57.2% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Boston Red Sox 1 @ Tampa Bay Rays 5.

Bet returned +1.06u on 1.5u risked.

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