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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — 2026-06-09

6:40 PM ETTropicana FieldSP: Payton Tolle vs Nick MartinezMLBFINAL
Recap

Tampa Bay Rays beat Boston Red Sox 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Boston Red Sox 4.4-4.5 Tampa Bay Rays and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 61% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Boston Red Sox
39%
Tampa Bay Rays
61%
Projected
Sox 4.4 - 4.5 Rays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.
Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 39% / Tampa Bay Rays 61%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.4 — 4.5 Tampa Bay Rays.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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