Boston Red Sox beat New York Mets 4-0, a 4-runs margin. We projected Boston Red Sox 4.5-4.4 New York Mets and gave Boston Red Sox a 53% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 53% / New York Mets 47%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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