Boston Red Sox beat New York Mets 6-2, a 4-runs margin. We projected Boston Red Sox 4.5-4.4 New York Mets and gave Boston Red Sox a 53% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 53% / New York Mets 47%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Boston Red Sox ML at +114 at +114. Pre-game: model 50.6% vs market 45.0% implied, a +5.5pp edge.
What happened: Boston Red Sox 6 @ New York Mets 2.
Bet returned +1.14u on 1u risked.
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