HomeMLB › Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — 2026-07-10

7:15 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLeanMLB

Model prediction

Boston Red Sox
53%
New York Mets
47%
Projected
Sox 4.5 - 4.4 Mets

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.
New York Mets
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Boston Red Sox ML at +114 at +114. Pre-game: model 50.6% vs market 45.0% implied, a +5.5pp edge.

What happened: Boston Red Sox 6 @ New York Mets 2.

Bet returned +1.14u on 1u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.

Dashboard