Boston Red Sox beat Cleveland Guardians 9-1, a 8-runs margin. We projected Boston Red Sox 4.4-4.5 Cleveland Guardians and gave Cleveland Guardians a 56% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 21-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.8% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 44% / Cleveland Guardians 56%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.4 — 4.5 Cleveland Guardians.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 21-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.8% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Cleveland Guardians ML at -133 at -133. Pre-game: model 60.8% vs market 55.0% implied, a +5.8pp edge.
What happened: Boston Red Sox 9 @ Cleveland Guardians 1.
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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