Home › MLB › Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — 2026-05-30

4:10 PM ETProgressive FieldSP: Sonny Gray vs Parker MessickMLB

Model prediction

Boston Red Sox

44%

Cleveland Guardians

56%

Projected

Sox 4.4 - 4.5 Guardians

Edge vs market on Cleveland Guardians: +5.8%. Model basis: MLB Elo + xERA model (xERA).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 21-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.8% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox

No recent games on file.

Cleveland Guardians

No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Cleveland Guardians ML at -133 at -133. Pre-game: model 60.8% vs market 55.0% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Boston Red Sox 9 @ Cleveland Guardians 1.

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord

All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.