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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-08-10

7:07 PM ETRogers CentreSP: Sonny Gray vs Jameson TaillonMLBFINAL
Recap

Toronto Blue Jays won 2-1 over Boston Red Sox on 2026-08-10. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Boston Red Sox
51%
Toronto Blue Jays
49%
Projected
Sox 4.5 - 4.4 Jays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.
Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 51% / Toronto Blue Jays 49%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.5 — 4.4 Toronto Blue Jays.

Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Boston Red Sox ML at -166 at -166. Pre-game: model 66.7% vs market 61.2% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Boston Red Sox 1 @ Toronto Blue Jays 2.

Bet returned -2.00u on 2u risked.

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