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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — 2026-10-07

8:00 PM ETYankee StadiumSP: Nick Martinez vs Max FriedMLBFINAL
Recap

Tampa Bay Rays won 4-3 over New York Yankees on 2026-10-07. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Tampa Bay Rays
52%
New York Yankees
48%
Projected
Rays 4.5 - 4.4 Yankees

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 35-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.
New York Yankees
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Tampa Bay Rays 52% / New York Yankees 48%. Projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.5 — 4.4 New York Yankees.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 35-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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