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Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — 2026-07-18

4:10 PM ETFenway ParkSP: Ian Seymour vs Patrick SandovalMLBFINAL
Recap

Boston Red Sox beat Tampa Bay Rays 7-6, a 1-run margin. We projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.5-4.4 Boston Red Sox and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 54% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Tampa Bay Rays
54%
Boston Red Sox
46%
Projected
Rays 4.5 - 4.4 Sox

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.
Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Tampa Bay Rays 54% / Boston Red Sox 46%. Projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.5 — 4.4 Boston Red Sox.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Boston Red Sox ML at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 58.9% vs market 52.2% implied, a +6.7pp edge.

What happened: Tampa Bay Rays 6 @ Boston Red Sox 7.

Bet returned +1.27u on 1.5u risked.

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