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Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-09-26

7:15 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Griffin Jax vs TBDMLBFINAL
Recap

Tampa Bay Rays won 12-1 over Philadelphia Phillies on 2026-09-26. Margin of 11 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Tampa Bay Rays
59%
Philadelphia Phillies
41%
Projected
Rays 4.6 - 4.3 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 87-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Tampa Bay Rays 59% / Philadelphia Phillies 41%. Projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.6 — 4.3 Philadelphia Phillies.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 87-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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