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Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins — 2026-06-07

1:40 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Griffin Jax vs Sandy AlcantaraMLBFINAL
Recap

Miami Marlins beat Tampa Bay Rays 4-1, a 3-runs margin. We projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.5-4.4 Miami Marlins and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 53% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Tampa Bay Rays
53%
Miami Marlins
47%
Projected
Rays 4.5 - 4.4 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Tampa Bay Rays 53% / Miami Marlins 47%. Projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.5 — 4.4 Miami Marlins.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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