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Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-07-23

3:07 PM ETRogers CentreSP: Ian Seymour vs Shane BieberMLBFINAL
Recap

Toronto Blue Jays beat Tampa Bay Rays 3-1, a 2-runs margin. We projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.6-4.3 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Tampa Bay Rays
59%
Toronto Blue Jays
41%
Projected
Rays 4.6 - 4.3 Jays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.
Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Tampa Bay Rays 59% / Toronto Blue Jays 41%. Projected Tampa Bay Rays 4.6 — 4.3 Toronto Blue Jays.

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Tampa Bay Rays ML at -108 at -108. Pre-game: model 56.6% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.6pp edge.

What happened: Tampa Bay Rays 1 @ Toronto Blue Jays 3.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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