Miami Marlins beat Texas Rangers 6-4, a 2-runs margin. We projected Texas Rangers 4.5-4.4 Miami Marlins and gave Miami Marlins a 50% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Rangers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Texas Rangers 50% / Miami Marlins 50%. Projected Texas Rangers 4.5 — 4.4 Miami Marlins.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Rangers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -114 at -114. Pre-game: model 57.5% vs market 51.3% implied, a +6.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 10 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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