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Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians — 2026-07-01

1:10 PM ETProgressive FieldSP: MacKenzie Gore vs Joey CantilloMLBFINAL
Recap

Cleveland Guardians beat Texas Rangers 9-4, a 5-runs margin. We projected Texas Rangers 4.5-4.4 Cleveland Guardians and gave Cleveland Guardians a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Texas Rangers
49%
Cleveland Guardians
51%
Projected
Rangers 4.5 - 4.4 Guardians

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -17-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Rangers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Texas Rangers
No recent games on file.
Cleveland Guardians
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Texas Rangers 49% / Cleveland Guardians 51%. Projected Texas Rangers 4.5 — 4.4 Cleveland Guardians.

Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -17-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Rangers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 7.5 at -111 at -111. Pre-game: model 58.7% vs market 50.8% implied, a +7.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 13 (line: over 7.5).

Bet returned +1.35u on 1.5u risked.

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