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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — 2026-08-02

1:40 PM ETGreat American Ball ParkSP: Mitch Keller vs Chase BurnsMLBFINAL
Recap

Cincinnati Reds won 10-2 over Pittsburgh Pirates on 2026-08-02. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 8 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Pittsburgh Pirates
51%
Cincinnati Reds
49%
Projected
Pirates 4.5 - 4.4 Reds

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.
Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Pittsburgh Pirates 51% / Cincinnati Reds 49%. Projected Pittsburgh Pirates 4.5 — 4.4 Cincinnati Reds.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 12 (line: over 8.5).

Bet returned +0.91u on 1u risked.

Pre-game call: Cincinnati Reds ML at -145 at -145. Pre-game: model 63.9% vs market 58.1% implied, a +5.9pp edge.

What happened: Pittsburgh Pirates 2 @ Cincinnati Reds 10.

Bet returned +1.38u on 2u risked.

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