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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — 2026-07-05

1:00 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Bubba Chandler vs Cade CavalliMLBFINAL
Recap

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Washington Nationals 11-5, a 6-runs margin. We projected Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6-4.3 Washington Nationals and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 58% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Pittsburgh Pirates
58%
Washington Nationals
42%
Projected
Pirates 4.6 - 4.3 Nationals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 77-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Pittsburgh Pirates 58% / Washington Nationals 42%. Projected Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6 — 4.3 Washington Nationals.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 77-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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