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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — 2026-07-19

1:40 PM ETProgressive FieldSP: Paul Skenes vs Joey CantilloMLB

Model prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates
53%
Cleveland Guardians
47%
Projected
Pirates 4.5 - 4.4 Guardians

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 47-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1503) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cleveland Guardians would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.
Cleveland Guardians
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 7.0 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 56.1% vs market 51.1% implied, a +5.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 8 (line: over 7).

Bet returned +0.87u on 1u risked.

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