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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves — 2026-06-05

7:15 PM ETTruist ParkSP: Mitch Keller vs Martín PérezMLB

Model prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates
46%
Atlanta Braves
54%
Projected
Pirates 4.4 - 4.5 Braves

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 6-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1550) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Pittsburgh Pirates would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.
Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Atlanta Braves ML at -135 at -135. Pre-game: model 63.4% vs market 57.5% implied, a +6.0pp edge.

What happened: Pittsburgh Pirates 3 @ Atlanta Braves 6.

Bet returned +1.48u on 2u risked.

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