Pittsburgh Pirates beat Houston Astros 10-6, a 4-runs margin. We projected Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6-4.3 Houston Astros and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 86-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Pittsburgh Pirates 59% / Houston Astros 41%. Projected Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6 — 4.3 Houston Astros.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 86-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 58.8% vs market 51.9% implied, a +6.8pp edge.
What happened: Total: 20 (line: under 8).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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