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Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — 2026-07-11

6:10 PM ETComerica ParkSP: Cristopher Sánchez vs Casey MizeMLBFINAL
Recap

Philadelphia Phillies beat Detroit Tigers 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Detroit Tigers and gave Detroit Tigers a 61% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Philadelphia Phillies
39%
Detroit Tigers
61%
Projected
Phillies 4.4 - 4.5 Tigers

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 51-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Detroit Tigers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 39% / Detroit Tigers 61%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Detroit Tigers.

Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 51-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Detroit Tigers ML at +114 at +114. Pre-game: model 53.0% vs market 45.0% implied, a +8.0pp edge.

What happened: Philadelphia Phillies 4 @ Detroit Tigers 2.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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