HomeMLB › Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — 2026-07-11

6:10 PM ETComerica ParkSP: Cristopher Sánchez vs Casey MizeMLB

Model prediction

Philadelphia Phillies
39%
Detroit Tigers
61%
Projected
Phillies 4.4 - 4.5 Tigers

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 51-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Detroit Tigers
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Detroit Tigers ML at +114 at +114. Pre-game: model 53.0% vs market 45.0% implied, a +8.0pp edge.

What happened: Philadelphia Phillies 4 @ Detroit Tigers 2.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.

Dashboard