Kansas City Royals beat Philadelphia Phillies 15-1, a 14-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Kansas City Royals and gave Kansas City Royals a 54% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 46% / Kansas City Royals 54%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Kansas City Royals.
Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -114 at -114. Pre-game: model 56.6% vs market 50.9% implied, a +5.8pp edge.
What happened: Total: 16 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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