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Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — 2026-07-04

8:10 PM ETKauffman StadiumSP: Jesús Luzardo vs Michael WachaMLBFINAL
Recap

Philadelphia Phillies won 6-1 over Kansas City Royals on 2026-07-04. Margin of 5 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Philadelphia Phillies
46%
Kansas City Royals
54%
Projected
Phillies 4.4 - 4.5 Royals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 46% / Kansas City Royals 54%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Kansas City Royals.

Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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