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Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — 2026-07-09

7:10 PM ETGreat American Ball ParkSP: Jesús Luzardo vs Brady SingerMLB

Model prediction

Philadelphia Phillies
37%
Cincinnati Reds
63%
Projected
Phillies 4.3 - 4.6 Reds

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 69-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.5 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.0% vs market 48.1% implied, a +6.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 1 (line: over 9.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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