Philadelphia Phillies beat Cincinnati Reds 1-0, a 1-run margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.3-4.6 Cincinnati Reds and gave Cincinnati Reds a 63% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 69-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 37% / Cincinnati Reds 63%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.3 — 4.6 Cincinnati Reds.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 69-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 9.5 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.0% vs market 48.1% implied, a +6.9pp edge.
What happened: Total: 1 (line: over 9.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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