Philadelphia Phillies beat Cincinnati Reds 4-1, a 3-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.3-4.6 Cincinnati Reds and gave Cincinnati Reds a 63% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 69-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 37% / Cincinnati Reds 63%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.3 — 4.6 Cincinnati Reds.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 69-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Cincinnati Reds ML at +144 at +144. Pre-game: model 44.9% vs market 39.3% implied, a +5.6pp edge.
What happened: Philadelphia Phillies 4 @ Cincinnati Reds 1.
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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