Philadelphia Phillies beat Washington Nationals 10-5, a 5-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Washington Nationals and gave Washington Nationals a 57% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 23-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 43% / Washington Nationals 57%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Washington Nationals.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 23-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -111 at -111. Pre-game: model 57.3% vs market 50.8% implied, a +6.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 15 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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