Washington Nationals beat Philadelphia Phillies 4-1, a 3-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Washington Nationals and gave Washington Nationals a 57% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 23-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 43% / Washington Nationals 57%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Washington Nationals.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 23-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 10.0 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.6% vs market 50.6% implied, a +6.1pp edge.
What happened: Total: 5 (line: under 10).
Bet returned +0.91u on 1u risked.
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