Our MLB model rates New York Mets as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -13-point Elo gap (1437 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.4% vs market 48.8% implied, a +5.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 3 (line: under 8).
Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.
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