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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — 2026-08-31

9:40 PM ETChase FieldSP: Aaron Nola vs TBDMLBFINAL
Recap

Philadelphia Phillies won 2-1 over Arizona Diamondbacks on 2026-08-31. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Philadelphia Phillies
34%
Arizona Diamondbacks
66%
Projected
Phillies 4.3 - 4.6 Diamondbacks

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 95-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 34% / Arizona Diamondbacks 66%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.3 — 4.6 Arizona Diamondbacks.

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 95-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Arizona Diamondbacks ML at +110 at +110. Pre-game: model 50.0% vs market 46.8% implied, a +3.2pp edge.

What happened: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 1.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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