Philadelphia Phillies beat Milwaukee Brewers 9-8, a 1-run margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Milwaukee Brewers and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 57% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 43% / Milwaukee Brewers 57%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Milwaukee Brewers.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at +100 at +100. Pre-game: model 54.8% vs market 48.4% implied, a +6.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 17 (line: over 8.5).
Bet returned +1.00u on 1u risked.
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