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Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-06-09

7:07 PM ETRogers CentreSP: Zack Wheeler vs Dylan CeaseMLBFINAL
Recap

Toronto Blue Jays beat Philadelphia Phillies 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Toronto Blue Jays a 54% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Philadelphia Phillies
46%
Toronto Blue Jays
54%
Projected
Phillies 4.4 - 4.5 Jays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 3-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.
Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 46% / Toronto Blue Jays 54%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Toronto Blue Jays.

Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 3-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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