Philadelphia Phillies beat Toronto Blue Jays 5-2, a 3-runs margin. We projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4-4.5 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Toronto Blue Jays a 54% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 3-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Philadelphia Phillies 46% / Toronto Blue Jays 54%. Projected Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 — 4.5 Toronto Blue Jays.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 3-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.5% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 7.5).
Bet returned +0.91u on 1u risked.
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