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San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals — 2026-07-17

8:10 PM ETKauffman StadiumSP: Michael King vs Seth LugoMLBFINAL
Recap

Kansas City Royals won 7-6 over San Diego Padres on 2026-07-17. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
64%
Kansas City Royals
36%
Projected
Padres 4.7 - 4.2 Royals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 64%. The driver is a 122-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 64% / Kansas City Royals 36%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.7 — 4.2 Kansas City Royals.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 64%. The driver is a 122-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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