HomeMLB › San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-06-03

6:40 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Walker Buehler vs Cristopher SánchezMLBFINAL
Recap

Philadelphia Phillies beat San Diego Padres 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.7-4.2 Philadelphia Phillies and gave San Diego Padres a 64% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
64%
Philadelphia Phillies
36%
Projected
Padres 4.7 - 4.2 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 64%. The driver is a 127-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 64% / Philadelphia Phillies 36%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.7 — 4.2 Philadelphia Phillies.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 64%. The driver is a 127-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.