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San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles — 2026-06-13

4:05 PM ETOriole Park at Camden YardsSP: Randy Vásquez vs Trey GibsonMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres beat Baltimore Orioles 9-3, a 6-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Baltimore Orioles and gave San Diego Padres a 58% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
58%
Baltimore Orioles
42%
Projected
Padres 4.6 - 4.3 Orioles

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 58% / Baltimore Orioles 42%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Baltimore Orioles.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 10.0 at -106 at -106. Pre-game: model 55.9% vs market 49.1% implied, a +6.7pp edge.

What happened: Total: 12 (line: under 10).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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