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San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles — 2026-06-12

7:05 PM ETOriole Park at Camden YardsSP: Griffin Canning vs Shane BazMLBFINAL
Recap

Baltimore Orioles beat San Diego Padres 7-3, a 4-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Baltimore Orioles and gave San Diego Padres a 58% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
58%
Baltimore Orioles
42%
Projected
Padres 4.6 - 4.3 Orioles

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 58% / Baltimore Orioles 42%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Baltimore Orioles.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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