HomeMLB › San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals — 2026-05-31

1:35 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Griffin Canning vs Zack LittellMLBFINAL
Recap

Washington Nationals beat San Diego Padres 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Washington Nationals and gave San Diego Padres a 61% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
61%
Washington Nationals
39%
Projected
Padres 4.6 - 4.3 Nationals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 104-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 61% / Washington Nationals 39%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Washington Nationals.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 104-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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