Washington Nationals beat San Diego Padres 9-4, a 5-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Washington Nationals and gave San Diego Padres a 61% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 104-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 7.0% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 61% / Washington Nationals 39%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Washington Nationals.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 104-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 7.0% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 56.4% vs market 49.4% implied, a +7.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 13 (line: under 7.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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