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San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals — 2026-05-30

4:05 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Michael King vs Foster GriffinMLB

Model prediction

San Diego Padres
61%
Washington Nationals
39%
Projected
Padres 4.6 - 4.3 Nationals
Edge vs market on San Diego Padres: +7.0%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 104-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 7.0% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 56.4% vs market 49.4% implied, a +7.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 13 (line: under 7.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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