San Diego Padres won 5-2 over New York Mets on 2026-08-18. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 3 runs.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 140-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 66% / New York Mets 34%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.7 — 4.2 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 140-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: New York Mets ML at +104 at +104. Pre-game: model 51.6% vs market 48.1% implied, a +3.5pp edge.
What happened: San Diego Padres 5 @ New York Mets 2.
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -109 at -109. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 49.9% implied, a +7.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +0.92u on 1u risked.
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