San Diego Padres beat Miami Marlins 7-2, a 5-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Miami Marlins and gave San Diego Padres a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.2% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 59% / Miami Marlins 41%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Miami Marlins.
Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.2% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 9 (line: under 8).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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