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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — 2026-07-24

7:10 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Germán Márquez vs TBDMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres beat Miami Marlins 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.6-4.3 Miami Marlins and gave San Diego Padres a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
59%
Miami Marlins
41%
Projected
Padres 4.6 - 4.3 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 59% / Miami Marlins 41%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.6 — 4.3 Miami Marlins.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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