HomeMLB › San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — 2026-07-04

10:10 PM ETUNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumSP: Griffin Canning vs Yoshinobu YamamotoMLB

Model prediction

San Diego Padres
46%
Los Angeles Dodgers
54%
Projected
Padres 4.4 - 4.5 Dodgers

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 7-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1576) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Diego Padres would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Los Angeles Dodgers
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Los Angeles Dodgers ML at -240 at -240. Pre-game: model 73.9% vs market 67.8% implied, a +6.1pp edge.

What happened: San Diego Padres 0 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3.

Bet returned +0.83u on 2u risked.

Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -112 at -112. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 50.4% implied, a +6.5pp edge.

What happened: Total: 3 (line: over 8.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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