HomeMLB › San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — 2026-07-21

7:15 PM ETTruist ParkSP: Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo LópezMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres beat Atlanta Braves 8-3, a 5-runs margin. We projected San Diego Padres 4.5-4.4 Atlanta Braves and gave Atlanta Braves a 50% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Diego Padres
50%
Atlanta Braves
50%
Projected
Padres 4.5 - 4.4 Braves

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -21-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1576) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Diego Padres would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Diego Padres 50% / Atlanta Braves 50%. Projected San Diego Padres 4.5 — 4.4 Atlanta Braves.

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -21-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1576) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Diego Padres would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.4% vs market 49.0% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Total: 11 (line: over 9).

Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.

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