HomeMLB › San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — 2026-07-21

7:15 PM ETTruist ParkSP: Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo LópezMLB

Model prediction

San Diego Padres
50%
Atlanta Braves
50%
Projected
Padres 4.5 - 4.4 Braves

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -21-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1576) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Diego Padres would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.
Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.4% vs market 49.0% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Total: 11 (line: over 9).

Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.

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