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Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — 2026-07-05

1:05 PM ETGreat American Ball ParkSP: Kyle Bradish vs Nick LodoloMLBFINAL
Recap

Cincinnati Reds beat Baltimore Orioles 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Baltimore Orioles 4.4-4.5 Cincinnati Reds and gave Cincinnati Reds a 57% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Baltimore Orioles
43%
Cincinnati Reds
57%
Projected
Orioles 4.4 - 4.5 Reds

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 22-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.
Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Baltimore Orioles 43% / Cincinnati Reds 57%. Projected Baltimore Orioles 4.4 — 4.5 Cincinnati Reds.

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 22-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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