Baltimore Orioles beat Cincinnati Reds 3-0, a 3-runs margin. We projected Baltimore Orioles 4.4-4.5 Cincinnati Reds and gave Cincinnati Reds a 57% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 22-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Baltimore Orioles 43% / Cincinnati Reds 57%. Projected Baltimore Orioles 4.4 — 4.5 Cincinnati Reds.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 22-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 10.5 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 54.9% vs market 48.5% implied, a +6.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 3 (line: over 10.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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