Boston Red Sox beat Baltimore Orioles 6-5, a 1-run margin. We projected Baltimore Orioles 4.5-4.4 Boston Red Sox and gave Boston Red Sox a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -15-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Baltimore Orioles 49% / Boston Red Sox 51%. Projected Baltimore Orioles 4.5 — 4.4 Boston Red Sox.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -15-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1497) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Baltimore Orioles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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