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Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — 2026-07-17

8:10 PM ETDaikin ParkSP: Dean Kremer vs Peter LambertMLBFINAL
Recap

Baltimore Orioles won 3-2 over Houston Astros on 2026-07-17. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Baltimore Orioles
51%
Houston Astros
49%
Projected
Orioles 4.5 - 4.4 Astros

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.
Houston Astros
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Baltimore Orioles 51% / Houston Astros 49%. Projected Baltimore Orioles 4.5 — 4.4 Houston Astros.

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at +101 at +101. Pre-game: model 53.5% vs market 47.5% implied, a +6.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 5 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned +1.01u on 1u risked.

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