Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at +101 at +101. Pre-game: model 53.5% vs market 47.5% implied, a +6.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 5 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +1.01u on 1u risked.
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