Washington Nationals beat Boston Red Sox 10-2, a 8-runs margin. We projected Washington Nationals 4.4-4.5 Boston Red Sox and gave Boston Red Sox a 55% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 45% / Boston Red Sox 55%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.4 — 4.5 Boston Red Sox.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.5 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 51.1% implied, a +6.7pp edge.
What happened: Total: 12 (line: under 9.5).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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