Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.5 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 51.1% implied, a +6.7pp edge.
What happened: Total: 12 (line: under 9.5).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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