HomeMLB › Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles — 2026-06-28

1:35 PM ETOriole Park at Camden YardsSP: Zack Littell vs Kyle BradishMLBFINAL
Recap

Washington Nationals beat Baltimore Orioles 6-4, a 2-runs margin. We projected Washington Nationals 4.4-4.5 Baltimore Orioles and gave Baltimore Orioles a 57% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Washington Nationals
43%
Baltimore Orioles
57%
Projected
Nationals 4.4 - 4.5 Orioles

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 24-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 43% / Baltimore Orioles 57%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.4 — 4.5 Baltimore Orioles.

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 24-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.