Washington Nationals beat Baltimore Orioles 6-4, a 2-runs margin. We projected Washington Nationals 4.4-4.5 Baltimore Orioles and gave Baltimore Orioles a 57% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 24-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 43% / Baltimore Orioles 57%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.4 — 4.5 Baltimore Orioles.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 24-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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