Miami Marlins won 4-2 over Washington Nationals on 2026-08-22. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 2 runs.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 19-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 44% / Miami Marlins 56%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.4 — 4.5 Miami Marlins.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 19-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at -175 at -175. Pre-game: model 66.4% vs market 62.7% implied, a +3.8pp edge.
What happened: Washington Nationals 2 @ Miami Marlins 4.
Bet returned +0.86u on 1.5u risked.
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