Miami Marlins won 3-2 over Washington Nationals on 2026-08-21. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 19-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 44% / Miami Marlins 56%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.4 — 4.5 Miami Marlins.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 19-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 7.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.2% vs market 52.0% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 5 (line: over 7.5).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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