Washington Nationals beat San Francisco Giants 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Washington Nationals 4.5-4.4 San Francisco Giants and gave San Francisco Giants a 50% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates San Francisco Giants as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1446 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Washington Nationals 50% / San Francisco Giants 50%. Projected Washington Nationals 4.5 — 4.4 San Francisco Giants.
Our MLB model rates San Francisco Giants as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1446 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -117 at -117. Pre-game: model 59.3% vs market 51.5% implied, a +7.8pp edge.
What happened: Total: 9 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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